Amgen drug cuts bad cholesterol up to 66 percent in statin patients – trial
















LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Amgen Inc‘s experimental cholesterol-lowering drug, AMG145, reduced levels of “bad” cholesterol up to 66 percent in patients already taking statin drugs, according to results from a mid-stage trial that were presented on Tuesday.


The trial results were in line with two other studies showing significant reductions in LDL cholesterol that were unveiled on Monday at the American Heart Association scientific meeting in Los Angeles.













The latest study of 629 patients is the largest trial so far of a drug in a new class, known as PCSK9 inhibitors, designed to target a protein that prevents the body from removing artery blocking LDL cholesterol from the bloodstream.


The Phase 2 trial showed a mean reduction in LDL versus a placebo of 42 percent for patients injected with 70 mg of AMG145 every two weeks, 60 percent in the 105 mg group and 66 percent in the 140 mg group.


When the drug was administered every two weeks, the mean reduction in LDL was 42 percent for the 280 mg group, 50 percent for the 350 mg group and 50 percent in the 420 mg group.


“We had some patients with entry LDLs as low as 85,” said Dr. Robert Giugliano, associate professor at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, and the study’s lead investigator, “At the end, some had LDLs measured in the teens.”


Current guidelines from the American Heart Association call for LDL levels to be 100, but some cardiologists believe even lower levels would be beneficial.


The most common side effects seen in the trial were cold-like symptoms, cough and nausea.


The results were presented at the AHA meeting and published in the Lancet medical journal.


(Editing by Ken Wills)


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Asia-Europe Meeting: build growth with cooperation
















VIENTIANE, Laos (AP) — Leaders from Asia and Europe called Tuesday for closer cooperation between the two continents in addressing the current global economic and financial crisis.


The president of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, also unequivocally affirmed the euro’s future.













A two-day Asia-Europe Meeting in Laos was attended by leaders and ministers from 51 countries, including new members Norway, Switzerland and Bangladesh.


The meeting, known as ASEM, endorsed closer economic ties between the two continents to promote stronger and sustained growth. Combined, the two regions produce half the world’s GDP and have 60 percent of the world’s population.


The crisis in Europe has affected not only most economies there but also their trading partners in Asia. But Van Rompuy said there was no sign of Asian resentment that it was being asked to carry its ailing European friends.


“There was no blame game,” he said. “Rather a clear sense that in Asia as well as in Europe, we are all on the same boat.”


The leaders also reaffirmed a commitment to fight against trade barriers that have crept in some places as a result of the crisis, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said.


He said there was “a strong rejection of protectionism” and a commitment to the “importance that trade can have for strong sustainable growth.”


Although not on the ASEM agenda, the issue of financially battered Greece was on many minds at the summit.


Greece’s international bailout creditors are demanding a series of painful spending cuts and tax hikes in exchange for rescue loans. Debt inspectors from the European Central Bank, European Commission and International Monetary Fund, collectively known as the troika, are preparing a report on the state of Greece’s compliance with its bailout terms.


Van Rompuy played down fears of problems with the disbursement of Greece’s next bailout payment.


“I urge the Greek government and leading political parties to decide what is needed to reach a final agreement with the troika,” he said.


The next ASEM summit will be in Brussels in two years.


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Bomb shakes Damascus, opposition holds unity talks
















AMMAN (Reuters) – A bomb exploded near army and security compounds in Damascus, Syrian television reported, and fractured opposition groups seeking to topple President Bashar al-Assad began unity talks abroad to win international respect and arms supplies.


The 50-kilogram (110-pound) bomb, near a large hotel in a heavily guarded district, was described by state media as an attack by “terrorists” – the government’s term for insurgents in the 19-month-old uprising against Assad.













Opposition activists said Sunday’s blast appeared to be the work of the Ahfad al-Rasoul (Grandsons of the Prophet) Brigade, an Islamist militant unit that attacked military and intelligence targets several times in the last two months.


The mainly Sunni rebels have carried out a series of bombings targeting government and military buildings in Damascus this year, extending the war into the seat of Assad’s power.


The Syrian conflict has aggravated divisions in the Islamic world, with Shi’ite Iran supporting Assad — whose Alawite faith derives from Shi’ite Islam — and U.S.-allied Sunni nations such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar backing his foes.


The Syrian Network for Human Rights, an activist monitoring group, said government forces had killed 179 people on Sunday. It said most of the dead were civilians killed in shelling of Damascus suburbs and included 14 women and 20 children. The rest were rebels killed in battles in the capital and the northern provinces of Idlib and Aleppo.


Opposition campaigners said the Syrian army shelled rebel positions inside a Palestinian refugee camp on the edge of Damascus on Sunday, killing at least 20 people. They said the Yarmouk camp had become the latest battleground in the war.


In northern Idlib, opposition sources said rebels were forced to halt an offensive to take a big air base because of a shortage of ammunition, a problem that has dogged their campaign to cement a hold on the north by eliminating Assad’s devastating edge in firepower.


Islamist insurgents had launched the attack on the Taftanaz military airport at dawn on Saturday, using rocket launchers and at least three tanks captured from the military.


The Syrian government restricts journalists’ access in Syria, making it difficult to verify reports from the ground.


The Jaafar bin Tayyar Division, a rebel unit in Deir al-Zor, said its fighters had taken control of the al-Ward oilfield near the Iraqi border on Sunday, after overrunning a loyalist outpost that had 40 militiamen defending it.


Rebel commanders, former Syrian officials and the Syrian head of an oil services company familiar with oil production in the area said the fields, mostly not operational, had been under de facto rebel control for months.


FEARS OF WIDER CONFLAGRATION


The conflict began with peaceful protest rallies that morphed into armed revolt when Assad, whose family has ruled Syria since 1971, tried to stamp them out with military might. About 32,000 people have been killed, wide swathes of the major Arab state have been wrecked and the civil war threatens to widen into a regional sectarian conflagration.


The opposition talks that began in Qatar marked the first concerted attempt to meld feuding, disparate groups based abroad and coordinate strategy with rebels fighting in Syria.


Divisions between Islamists and secularists as well as between those inside Syria and opposition figures based abroad have foiled prior attempts to forge a united opposition and deterred Western powers from intervening militarily.


Analysts were skeptical the planned four days of opposition talks in the Qatari capital Doha would bring immediate results.


They aim to broaden the Syrian National Council (SNC), the largest of the overseas-based opposition groups, from some 300 members to 400, to pave the way for talks in Doha on Thursday including other anti-Assad factions to crystallise a coalition.


“The main aim is to expand the council to include more of the social and political components. There will be new forces in the SNC,” Abdulbaset Sieda, current leader of the Syrian National Council, told reporters in Doha ahead of the meeting.


The meetings would also elect a new executive committee and leader for the SNC, he said.


A Qatar-based security analyst, who asked not to be named, said the meetings would bring a small step forward, at most. “The Syrian National Council is just too divided,” he said.


In Cairo, the international mediator on Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, called on Sunday for world powers to issue a U.N. Security Council resolution based on a deal they reached in June to set up a transitional Syrian government.


But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking at the same news conference, dismissed the need for a resolution and said others were stoking violence by backing rebels. His comments highlighted the impasse over Syria’s civil war.


Russia and China, both permanent council members, have vetoed three Western-backed U.N. draft resolutions condemning Assad’s government for the violence. The other three permanent members are the United States, Britain and France.


(Additional reporting by Rania el Gamal and Regan Doherty in Qatar, Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman; Editing by Philippa Fletcher and Stephen Powell)


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EU boosts radio spectrum for superfast mobile services
















BRUSSELS (Reuters) – The European Commission is to release a swathe of radio spectrum to give mobile and internet companies more space for rolling out faster fourth-generation (4G) wireless services.


Monday’s announcement means an extra 120 MHz of spectrum will be available for 4G from 2014 at the latest to try to accommodate a sharp rise in the use of such services on mobile devices.













The radio spectrum, used by all wireless technologies for sending and receiving information, is becoming increasingly crowded as mobile demand adds to TV and radio broadcasting in using a resource also needed by emergency services and military telecommunications.


Industry estimates put growth in global mobile data traffic at 26 percent annually by 2015. According to networking firm Cisco Systems, mobile data traffic volumes in the European Union are expected to increase by more than 90 percent each year for the next 5 years.


Superfast 4G mobile communications allow the use of data-heavy services such as video conferencing.


“This extra spectrum for 4G in Europe means we can better meet the changing and growing demand for broadband,” said Neelie Kroes, European Union Commissioner for digital policy.


Freeing up additional spectrum would also help the EU address competition from countries such as the United States and Japan, where wireless services are among the world’s fastest.


“The EU will enjoy up to twice the amount of spectrum for high speed wireless broadband as in the United States,” the Commission said in a statement.


Companies that own parts of the radio wave spectrum bought after liberalization in the 1990s consider the resource among their most valuable assets and many are reluctant to share.


But in September the Commission pushed telecoms firms to share the radio frequencies they use for mobile and broadband services as space runs out.


(Reporting By Claire Davenport; Editing by Louise Heavens)


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Magic Johnson: 21 Years With HIV
















Twenty-one years after announcing his retirement from the Los Angeles Lakers because of HIV, Earvin “Magic” Johnson is a symbol of hope for more than a million Americans living with the once-deadly virus.


The basketball star’s Nov. 7, 1991, revelation shocked the nation at a time when many people thought HIV was an infection for “other people,” like gay men.













“Here I am saying that it can happen to anybody, even me, Magic Johnson,” he said at a packed news conference at the Forum in Inglewood, Calif. “I just want to say that I’m going to miss playing, and I will now become a spokesman for the HIV virus.”


Now 53, Johnson has kept his promise through a foundation in his name that funds HIV education and prevention programs in some of the country’s most vulnerable neighborhoods.


“There is not a better feeling than to touch somebody’s life, than to impact it,” he said in a statement to ABC News last week. “Not a better feeling in the world.”


Johnson was diagnosed with HIV after having medical tests for a life insurance policy. He said he acquired the virus through unprotected sex with multiple women, and hoped to encourage other people to be more careful.


“That’s what I want to preach,” he said after his diagnosis. “I want them to understand that safe sex is the way to go.”


Johnson’s wife, Cookie, and their son are HIV-negative.


Johnson’s announcement, which came at the peak of his NBA fame, coincided with a dramatic drop in HIV infections nationwide, from more than 80,000 new cases per year to about 50,000, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But the infection rate has since leveled off, a trend some attribute to complacence.


“Some people feel that because [Johnson] has lived on, they can have certain behaviors and live on, too,” said Amelia Williamson, president of the Beverly Hills-based Magic Johnson Foundation. “But his message is, ‘Follow my lead. Don’t make same mistakes I made.’”


Indeed, HIV treatments, the product of years of research, can help people with HIV live long lives without developing AIDS. But the drugs come at a cost.


“HIV is not a death sentence, but it’s a life sentence,” said Hydeia Broadbent, 28, who was born HIV-positive to an intravenous drug user. “You’ll be taking pills forever, going to the doctor and fighting for insurance forever.”


Broadbent met Johnson at a televised AIDS awareness event when she was 7 years old. When he asked what she wanted people to know about HIV, she replied through tiny sobs, “I want people to know that we’re just normal people.”


Now an HIV and AIDS activist herself, Broadbent recognizes the impact of Johnson’s bold admission and his mission to raise awareness.


“There aren’t really any other celebrities that have come forward and spoken out about having HIV,” she said. “And he’s a prime example of how this can happen to anyone. HIV doesn’t discriminate based on how much money you have and whether you’re straight or gay. It can happen if you’re not safe.”


After she was diagnosed with HIV at age 3, Broadbent’s adoptive parents enrolled her in clinical trials for experimental HIV drugs, a move she said saved her life.


“They basically signed me up to be a human guinea pig,” she said, adding that many of her friends died from AIDS in the 1990s. “By the grace of God, I’m still here.”


Despite advances in HIV testing and treatments, AIDS still kills nearly 18,000 Americans each year, according to the CDC. Part of the problem is that one in five people living with HIV is unaware, according to the Magic Johnson Foundation.


That’s why Nov. 7 is “Point Forward Day,” an awareness event named after Johnson’s role as both point guard and forward with the L.A. Lakers created to educate people about HIV and encourage them to get tested so they can get treated.


“It’s about finding out early, but it’s also about education, because there are still so many myths out there,” the foundation’s Williamson said. “HIV doesn’t have to happen to you when you make the right decisions and practice safe sex.”


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Wall Street ticks lower ahead of presidential vote
















NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks slipped in low volume on Monday as traders awaited Tuesday’s U.S. election to place bets on sectors seen performing better under one or the other political party.


Democratic President Barack Obama and his challenger, Republican Mitt Romney, sprinted through key states on the last day of the race for the White House. Investors also eyed congressional races to gauge how the United States will deal with the $ 600 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes that could kick in next year and send the economy reeling.













“People are pausing ahead of the election and what that means for the fiscal cliff,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis.


Leading world economies pressed the United States on Sunday to act decisively to avert the fiscal cliff, calling it the biggest short-term threat to global growth.


The market’s reaction to data showing the pace of growth in the U.S. services sector slowed modestly in October was muted. Data from the Institute for Supply Management showed new orders slipped, but employment improved.


Paulsen said economic data could soon start to show the impact of superstorm Sandy on the economy after battering the U.S. northeast.


A week after Sandy wreaked havoc on New York City and the surrounding area, close to 2 million people still have no power as cold weather sets in. On Sunday 30,000 to 40,000 people in New York City were in need of shelter.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 47 points, or 0.36 percent, to 13,046.16. The S&P 500 <.SPX> dropped 5.43 points, or 0.38 percent, at 1,408.77. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> was down 2.82 points, or 0.09 percent, at 2,979.31.


Transocean Ltd reported a higher-than-expected adjusted profit for the third quarter and its shares were up 5.4 percent at $ 48.55.


Stifel Financial Corp shares gained 1.9 percent to $ 32.50. KBW Inc climbed 7.3 percent to $ 17.49 after Stifel said it would buy the smaller rival in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $ 575 million to form an investment bank focused on the financial services industry.


A private survey of China’s growing services sector slipped in October, with weaker-than-expected new orders injecting a note of caution after three previous PMI surveys for October showed the world’s second-largest economy regaining momentum.


Greece’s government will present a new austerity package to parliament on Monday, facing a week of strikes and protests over proposals which must win deputies’ approval if the country is to secure more aid and stave off bankruptcy.


(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Kenneth Barry)


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Brazil’s ‘pop-star priest’ gets mammoth new stage

























SAO PAULO (AP) — Brazil‘s “pop-star priest” is already packing in the crowds at the newly opened mammoth sanctuary that he built for his campaign to stem the exodus of faithful from the Roman Catholic Church in Latin America’s biggest nation.


Brazil still has more Catholics than any other country in the world, with about 65 percent of its 192 million people identifying themselves that way in the 2010 census. But that is down from 74 percent in 2000 and is the lowest since records began tracking religion 140 years ago.





















That’s where Father Marcelo Rossi‘s Mother of God sanctuary comes in. The not-yet-finished structure will seat 6,000 people and have standing room for 14,000 more, church leaders say. In addition, the grounds outside can hold 80,000 people who could watch Mass on outdoor video screens.


After the inaugural Mass on Friday attracted upward of 50,000 people, a beaming Rossi told reporters: “They couldn’t all fit in. There was a crowd that had to stand outside! That’s a sign we’re on the right path, and it’s this sanctuary.”


Similar numbers jammed into the huge church Saturday.


It’s a fitting stage for Rossi, a Latin Grammy-nominated singer who is known for tossing buckets of holy water on worshippers and performing rollicking Christian songs backed by a blasting live band during Mass.


The church sits on 323,000 square feet (30,000 square meters) of land. Church officials declined to confirm how big the actual building is, though local reports put it at 91,500 square feet (8,500 square meters). That would make it one of the world’s 10 biggest churches. A cross soaring 138 feet (42 meters) into the air is the focal point.


The Mother of God sanctuary is anything but traditional. Designed by noted Brazilian architect Ruy Ohtake, it has a wide-open layout giving it the feel of a warehouse. Concrete walls hold up a sloping blue roof that from the outside looks more like a basketball arena than a house of worship. With the church several years away from completion, white plastic chairs were in the place of pews for a lucky few thousand to grab a seat. The rest had to stand.


Rossi dismisses the idea his huge church is a response to the explosion of the evangelical Christian faith in Brazil. Rather, the priest seems to be battling what recent studies indicate is Catholicism’s biggest enemy: indifference.


While millions of Brazilian Catholics joined Pentecostal congregations in the 1990s, a study conducted last year by Brazil’s Getulio Vargas Foundation based on census data found that the Catholics leaving the church these days are mostly becoming nonreligious. Experts have said the trend of Brazilians deciding organized religion isn’t for them poses a more potent threat to Catholic leaders than losses to the Pentecostals.


Rossi chose to open his new church on the Brazilian holiday of Finados, the nation’s version of the Day of the Dead. “A day, a day that was dead, was transformed!” the priest told worshippers during the service, using his gold-plated microphone.


The “pop-star priest” is seen by Brazilian Catholicism as its biggest weapon against the lack of interest, and his new sanctuary adds to his tools of best-selling books and music recordings to keep worshippers interested in what many complain has become a staid institution.


There was nothing stale about his Mass on Friday.


Singing as loud as they could, waving white hankies and swaying with a rocking band, the 20,000 people who jammed into the Mother of God sanctuary hammed it up for TV cameras and shed tears down their cheeks as their superstar priest waved to them from the pulpit. An estimated 30,000 other people had gathered outside, where young boys climbed up into nearby trees trying to get a glimpse of the church grounds as they squinted over a sea of heads streaming out of the sanctuary.


“We have problems, everyone has problems,” worshipper Zuleima de Oliveira Sales said as she stood in the tightly packed sea of people under the soaring blue roof of the structure, her voice choking. “They don’t come to an end, but I have faith, I have faith in Our Lady.”


That’s the sort of belief the Catholic Church is counting on in Brazil and other developing nations. Leaders from the Vatican on down are looking to them as bulwarks against losses in Europe and the U.S., where sex abuse scandals have inspired many people to leave the church. About half of the world’s Catholics live in Latin America.


Pentecostalism was once seen as a major threat to Brazil’s Catholic Church. Pentecostal churches, many of them founded by U.S. evangelicals, saw their membership double to more than 12 percent of the country’s population over the 1990s, with about half of the congregants estimated to be former Catholics.


During the 1990s, Brazil’s economy suffered from hyperinflation and other woes, and Pentecostal churches aggressively recruited in the slums and poor outskirts of Brazil’s cities by offering nuts-and-bolts self-improvement advice as well as Christian ministry.


Since 2003, however, Pentecostal churches have seen growth slow. The percentage of Brazilians calling themselves Pentecostals edged up from 12.5 percent of the population to 13.3 percent.


Yet the Catholic Church has continued to lose parishioners, and church leaders have had little success so far in halting that trend.


Brazil was the first nation outside Europe that Pope Benedict XVI visited, during a five-day tour in 2007 largely aimed at stopping losses in Latin America. During the trip, the pope canonized Brazil’s first native-born saint.


Then Benedict announced last August during the church’s World Youth Day, which drew 1.5 million people to Spain, that the next version of the gathering would be held in Rio de Janeiro in 2013. The pope is expected to attend.


For now, Rossi hopes his big church will bring together tens of thousands of faithful for every Mass, giving new energy to the Catholic faith.


“People want big spaces. They want grand places for prayer,” he told the Globo TV network. “One candle illuminates, 10 candles illuminate — and 100,000 candles light up so much more.”


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Tweet tastefully, dress like 007 with UK style guides

























LONDON (Reuters) – Should you keep your mobile phone on display at lunch? Can you tweet with taste and how does James Bond maintain that polished look in those dashing dinner jackets?


Two new guides from British etiquette authority Debrett‘s offer modern men some time-honored tips on shoe care and shaving alongside 21st century advice on how to handle your mobile phone, email punctuation and an answer for any modern digital Hamlet: “To tweet or not to tweet?”





















The sartorial bible “Men’s Style” includes advice on formal wear and tailoring traditions as well as how to mix and match casual clothing, picking the right aftershave and “essential” advice on maintaining luxuriant beards and moustaches.


Netiquette” helps navigate the dos and don’ts of the digital age with useful suggestions on mobile phone use, golden rules for emails and texting faux pas. It demystifies technical terminology, offers ways to protect your privacy and advice on getting your Twitter persona just right.


“Men’s Style is packed with subtle advice and practical hints to help the modern man to appear effortlessly stylish, while at a time when web-based communication is threatening to take over all our lives, Netiquette is an indispensable guide on how to deal with every digital dilemma,” Debrett’s Managing Editor Jo Bryant said in a statement.


Both guides are part of a series of titles, which include “Debrett’s People of Today”, listing people of distinction and achievement, “A Guide to Civilized Separation” and “Debrett’s A-Z of Modern Manners”.


Besides its modern-day etiquette and grooming guides, Debrett’s has been the indispensible record of the British aristocracy for centuries, tracking the fortunes of titled families since the late 18th century.


(Reporting by Paul Casciato)


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Sanofi considered moving headquarters abroad: report

























PARIS (Reuters) – Sanofi‘s management considered moving its headquarters abroad in the last few months but the plan was nixed by the drugmaker’s chairman, French weekly Le Journal du Dimanche reported on Sunday, citing sources close to the board.


First mooted in July, when the Socialist government was preparing to introduce a 75 percent tax on top earnings, the plan envisaged moving the headquarters to London or the United States, or at least relocating Chief Executive Chris Viehbacher and his closest associates abroad.





















However, Chairman Serge Weinberg vetoed the project, the newspaper said, saying that Viehbacher had not raised the issue with him.


A Sanofi spokesman denied such plans were discussed and said the company’s recent move to new corporate headquarters in Paris showed its commitment to its base in the city.


Several of the company’s top executives are foreign and spend most of their time travelling abroad.


In addition to German-Canadian Viehbacher, they include Elias Zerhouni, an Algerian-born American in charge of research and development, and Hanspeter Spek, the German-born president of global operations.


Italian Roberto Pucci, senior vice president of human resources, and Karen Linehan, Sanofi’s American-born general counsel, are also part of the executive committee.


Sanofi, which is reshuffling its French research operations at a cost of around 900 jobs, would not be the first French firm to consider moving top executives overseas.


French industrial conglomerate Schneider Electric has kept its headquarters near Paris, but its top managers, including Chief Executive Jean-Pascal Tricoire, relocated to Hong Kong last year in a move to be closer to fast-growing markets in Asia.


Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg, who has opposed the reorganization of Sanofi’s research activities in France, was cited by the newspaper as saying he hoped the plan was just a rumor.


(Reporting by Elena Berton; Editing by Hugh Lawson)


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How Romney Can Win Pennsylvania

























If public polls of battleground states are accurate, Mitt Romney doesn’t have a viable path to the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House. To expand the map, he’s making a late push for Pennsylvania with a campaign stop on Sunday. Why Pennsylvania? It’s a Midwestern state. He hasn’t been pummeled by ads there. And Pennsylvania’s 2o electoral votes would make up for Ohio’s 18 that Romney needs but appears on track to lose. But there’s a reason he didn’t try earlier: Obama won it 54-44 in 2008.


Still, Republicans can and do thrive there. Romney’s runner-up for the GOP nomination, Rick Santorum, was a two-term Pennsylvania senator, and the governor, Tom Corbett, is also a Republican. To find out how Romney could win, I called John Brabender, strategist for both men.





















For Romney to win, Brabender said, four things would have to fall into place. First, turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia would need to disappoint. That’s not inconceivable. “Anecdotally, there doesn’t seem to be the same enthusiasm that there was four years ago,” he said. “I’ve talked to a number of Democrats on the ground in Philadelphia and think the assumption is that no one thought it would be in play, so they never did the ground work you need to do.” But neither did Republicans.


Second, Romney would need to perform well in the collar counties of Philadelphia, which have a large number of pro-choice, moderate women who will support the right kind of Republican. This is one of the state’s two distinct blocs of swing voters. “Romney needs to pick up a decent share of those votes,” says Brabender, “and to do that, he’ll have to be seen as more moderate than some previous Republican candidates, such as President Bush.”


Third, Romney would need to win the other swing bloc, conservative male Democrats concentrated in the Western part of the state around Pittsburgh, Johnstown, and Erie. Once known as “Reagan Democrats,” they’re older, blue-collar, and socially conservative. “They’re the type of people who cling to their guns and religion, as Obama put it, and wear that as a badge of honor, not as a criticism,” Brabender says. Culturally speaking, Romney isn’t their ideal candidate. “That’s where the battle is raging over the ’47 percent’ tape. If you think of the election like ‘It’s a Wonderful Life,’ Obama’s trying to make Romney into Mr. Potter and Romney’s trying to present himself as George Bailey. [Winning this bloc] could hinge on which character they decide Romney really is.”


Fourth, Romney needs to win (probably overwhelmingly) the 12 percent of voters that Brabender says are true independents and generally vote against the party in power.


One advantage Romney has in Pennsylvania is that it has one of oldest populations in the country. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) often competes with counties in Florida for that honor. Romney performs best with elderly voters — and could perform even better here. “Normally, the Democrats would have run a month’s worth of television saying Republicans were coming to destroy Medicare and Social Security,” Brabender says. “But because Pennsylvania hasn’t been targeted, that air war hasn’t happened. So I don’t think you’ll see as much of a dent in the Republican’s armor from seniors.”


To understand what kind of Republicans do and don’t win in Pennsylvania, Brabender pointed to 2000. Rick Santorum was reelected by six points, while George W. Bush lost by six points. Santorum won 25 percent of Democrats — mainly the Western Democrats Bush couldn’t carry. In 2006, Santorum won only 8 percent of Democrats, and lost his bid for re-election.


Based on public and private polling data, Brabender believes that Pennsylvania is “a 3- or 4-point race.” (A Public Policy Polling survey released Saturday night had Obama up 52-46.) There is a path to victory, he says, but it’s a difficult one. “All those things have to come true for Romney to win,” he says. Even if they do, Republican presidential candidates have a history of disappointment. “Pennsylvania often looks better than it is,” he says, “and then, at the end, it changes.”


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